Look for complete geospatial metadata in this layer's associated xml document available from the download link

* Metric Name: Potential Climate Refugia – under Modeled Climate Change (MIROC Model – Hotter and Drier)  

* Tier: 3  

* Data Vintage: 2016  

* Unit Of Measure: 0- 1. Low values indicate higher resilience to threats. High values indicate significant exposure to climate change. -1 represents ‘non analog’ areas, i.e. locations that are outside the historic climate envelope of a given vegetation type.  

* Represent element and pillar: No  

* Type and distribution of data: Asymmetric distribution representing index values. Raw data values range from 0.050 to 1.  

* Translation: Where is protection from disturbances lowest?  

* Translation method and outcome: Raw data values translated to range from +1 to -1 representing more favorable to less favorable conditions, respectively. **** The proposition of more favorable is based on the objective of low significant exposure to climate change (negative linear slope). More favorable (translated to +1) set at 0.05 probability, less favorable (translated to -1) set at the highest observed value of 1.00 probability.

Figure . Histogram and scoring criterion of potential climate refugia, under
modeled climate change, MIROC model 2010-2039, in Southern California

Figure . Histogram of translated potential climate refugia, under modeled
climate change, MIROC model 2010-2039, in Southern California.

Figure . Maps displaying raw metric and translated metric potential climate
refugia, under modeled climate change, MIROC model 2010-2039, in Southern
California.

Figure . Histogram and scoring criterion of potential climate refugia, under
modeled climate change, MIROC model 2040-2069, in Southern California.

Figure . Histogram of translated potential climate refugia, under modeled
climate change, MIROC model 2040-2069, in Southern California

Figure . Maps displaying raw metric and translated metric potential climate
refugia, under modeled climate change, MIROC model 2040-2069, in Southern
California

Figure . Histogram and scoring criterion of potential climate refugia, under
modeled climate change, MIROC model 2070-2099, in Southern California

Figure . Histogram of translated potential climate refugia, under modeled
climate change, MIROC model 2070-2099, in Southern California

Figure . Maps displaying raw metric and translated metric potential climate
refugia, under modeled climate change, MIROC model 2070-2099, in Southern
California

  

* Metric Definition and Relevance: This raster dataset represents habitat types (CWHR habitat classes) and their predicted exposure to climate stress across the array of predicted climate conditions (separate layers for early (2010 - 2039), mid (2040-2069), and late century (2070-2099)) for all habitat types in comparison to the baseline climate conditions. This serves as the foundation from which habitat types will be exposed to predicted changes in climate. Data are arrayed across 0 to 1 in terms of their exposure to current climate conditions. These three data layers can be used to help land managers allocate limited resources for climate-adaptive field work by providing a view of climate risk that varies across the lands they manage.

The Climate Change Model used in this analysis is the MIROC Earth System
Model. This ESM, named “MIROC-ESM”, is based on a global climate model MIROC
(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) which has been cooperatively
developed by researchers in Japan and others. This model suggests a hotter and
drier future. The emission scenario used is the RCP 8.5, which represents a
range of warming statewide from 1.99 to 4.56°C and between a 24.8% decrease in
precipitation and a 22.9% increase, respectively.

  

* Credits: Information Center for the Environment, UC Davis \--Jim Thorne