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* Metric Name: Probability of High Fire Severity *  

* Tier: 1  

* Data Vintage: 08/2023. Includes disturbances through the end of 2022  

* Unit Of Measure: Probability, 0 to 1  

* Represent element and pillar: Yes  

* Type and distribution of data: Zero-inflated bimodal distribution representing probabilities. Raw values range from 0 to 1 probability.  

* Translation: Where is the probability of high severity fire low?  

* Translation method and outcome: Raw data values translated to range from +1 to -1 representing more favorable to less favorable conditions, respectively. **** The proposition of more favorable is based on the objective of high severity fire probability being low (negative linear slope). More favorable (translated to +1) set at 0.0 probability, and less favorable (translated to -1) set at 1.0 probability, and intermediate conditions (0 score) at 0.5 probability. In some cases there may be a very low tolerance for the probability of high severity fire (e.g., score of -1 set lower than a probability of 1) and in some instances, there may be a desire for some high severity fire (score of -1 set at probabilities greater than _and_ less than certain values). These alternative interpretations can be derived from the translated values provided.

Figure 101. Histogram and scoring criterion of probability of high severity
fire across the Southern California.

Figure 102. Histogram of translated current probability of high severity fire
across the Southern California.

Figure 103. Maps displaying raw metric and translated metric of current
condition of probability of high severity fire across the Southern California.

  

* Metric Definition and Relevance: These metrics depicts the probability of high severity fire as constructed by Pyrologix LLC. This operational-control probability raster indicates the probability that the headfire flame length in each pixel will exceed 8 foot flame lengths, the threshold that defines fires that would exceed manual control.  

* Credits: Pyrologix, LLC \--James Newman (California State BLM Office) jnewman@blm.gov