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* Metric Name: Potential Total Smoke Production Index   

* Tier: 1  

* Data Vintage: 2022. Includes disturbances through the end of 2022.  

* Unit Of Measure: 0 - 1 **,** a unitless number serving as an index; on a per 30-m pixel basis  

* Metric Definition and Relevance: This metric is an index of the potential smoke production (represented by particulate matter that is 2.5 microns or less in diameter, or PM2.5) that could be emitted for a given 30-meter pixel under fire weather conditions that produce high severity fire effects. By showing spatial variation in potential smoke emissions under standardized fuel moisture conditions, this index is intended to help identify potential emissions hotpots within a region if a high severity wildfire occurs in the future. It may be useful for regional scale planning and/or prioritization.

However, the actual moistures and fire weather conditions under which these
fuels may convert to smoke will vary; therefore, the map does not represent
actual smoke production (PM2.5 emissions) during an actual fire event. For
data users interested in near-term smoke forecasts that reflect the
environmental drivers of emissions, project-specific modeling tools are
recommended. For example, the BlueSky Playground
(https://tools.airfire.org/playground) can tailor model inputs based on the
fuel and moisture conditions observed or planned for in the project area of
interest.

Potential smore emissions do not consider the probability of a fire or the
transport of smoke to more distant locations; they only reflect what would
happen locally if a pixel were to burn.

  

* Creation Method: Potential TOTAL smoke production index is the smoke production expected for a given pixel under severe fire weather conditions. It is based on model outputs from the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) developed by the U.S. Forest Service (Spatial FOFEM: https://www.firelab.org/project/fofem-fire-effects-model). Key drivers (and model inputs) for this mapped variation are (1) fuel loads spatially extracted from the Landfire FCCS modeled fuelbeds map (LANDFIRE 2022 Update (LF 2.3.0),[ https://www.landfire.gov/lf_230.php](https://www.landfire.gov/lf_230.php)), and (2) fuel moistures, which are assigned to approximate the extremely dry conditions under which high severity fire generally occurs. The data are dimensionless and linearly normalized from 0 to 1 based on the statewide maximum value, with 1 being the maximum PM2.5 emissions per 30-m pixel for the given region. Fuels are taken from LANDFIRE LF2022_FCCS_220. Spatial FOFEM was run as implemented in FlamMap 6.2 (https://www.firelab.org/project/flammap).

This index is a unitless number (ranging between 0 and 1) on a per 30-meter
pixel basis, which is calculated using the following equation:

Potential Total Smoke Production Index = Si / (maximum Si statewide)

where

Si = high severity PM2.5 emissions value for pixel i

Calculated with SpatialFOFEM (First Order Fire Effects Model), embedded in
FlamMap 6.2. Fuels are LCP and FCCS 2022 from LANDFIRE
(LCP_LF2022_FBFM40_220_CONUS and LF2022_FCCS_220_CONUS). FOFEM Parameters used
for this application are:

Seasonality - (Summer)

Canopy consumption – 39%

Duff moisture – 20%

1 hour fuel moisture – 4%

10-hour fuel moisture – 6%

100-hour fuel moisture – 8%

1000-hour fuel moisture – 8%

  

* Credits: LANDFIRE FCCS ([LANDFIRE Program: Data Products – Fuel – Fuel Characteristic Classification System Fuelbeds](https://www.landfire.gov/fccs.php)) 2022 Rocky Mountain Research Station https://www.firelab.org/project/fofem-fire- effects-model