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* Metric Name: Potential Avoided Smoke Production Index *  

* Tier: 1  

* Data Vintage: 2022. Includes disturbances through the end of 2022.  

* Unit Of Measure: 0 - 1 **,** a unitless number serving as an index; on a per 30-m pixel basis  

* Represent element and pillar: Yes  

* Type and distribution of data: Right-skewed distribution representing index values. Raw data values range from 0 to 1.  

* Translation: Where is potential avoided smoke production index the highest?  

* Translation method and outcome: Raw data values translated to range +1 to -1 representing more favorable or less favorable conditions, respectively. The proposition of more favorable is based on the objective of higher potential avoided smoke production index (positive linear slope). More favorable (translated to +1) set at > 0.2, less favorable (translated to -1) set at 0.

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Figure . Histogram and scoring of potential avoided smoke production index in
Southern California.

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Figure . Histogram of translated potential avoided smoke production index in
Southern California.

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Figure . Maps displaying raw metric and translated metric potential avoided
smoke production index in Southern California.

  

* Metric Definition and Relevance: This is an index of how much _less_ smoke (as defined by PM2.5 emissions) would be produced from a given pixel by burning under moderate fire weather conditions rather than the extreme conditions that lead to high-severity smoke production. This serves as a proxy for efforts to minimize smoke emissions by allowing a given area to burn under more desirable conditions (e.g., prescribed burning conditions) vs. how it would burn under extreme conditions. Since identical fuelbeds are used as inputs in the high-severity and low-severity model runs, the index does _not_ represent the effects of fuel treatments on subsequent wildfire. Rather, this metric represents the maximum potential difference between emissions under high vs. moderate fire weather conditions. Summing these reductions over large areas would be unrealistic because wildland fire burns with a mix of intensities and severities over landscapes, and does not burn everywhere in California, every year.

Wildland fire is often self-limiting in extent. In other words, wildfires may
stop spreading when they reach the boundary of a recent burn. Since prescribed
fire and managed wildfire can be selected to burn under moderate fire weather
conditions, proactive fire use can shift high-severity-type fire emissions to
low-severity-type fire emissions. This metric provides a rough index of the
potential fire emissions benefits if a fire is allowed to burn under moderate
weather conditions rather than in a wildfire under extreme weather. By showing
the spatial variation in this potential benefit, this index is intended to
help identify where fire management may have the greatest emissions benefit.
It may be useful for regional scale planning and/or prioritization.

It is important to note that not all managed fire will produce an emissions
benefit, because wildfire may not have otherwise burned in that location
within the lifespan of the managed fire’s effects, and the managed fire’s
footprint may not prevent a subsequent wildfire from burning in the same
location. Furthermore, actual weather conditions vary from those used in model
inputs. Therefore, the map does not represent actual avoided smoke production
(PM2.5 emissions) during an actual fire event that may occur in the future.
For data users interested in near-term smoke forecasts that reflect the
environmental drivers of emissions, project-specific modeling tools are
recommended. For example, the BlueSky Playground
(https://tools.airfire.org/playground) can tailor model inputs based on the
fuel and moisture conditions observed or planned for in the project area of
interest.

Potential smoke emissions do not consider the probability of a fire or the
transport of smoke to more distant locations; they only reflect what would
happen locally if a pixel were to burn.

  

* Credits: LANDFIRE FCCS ([LANDFIRE Program: Data Products – Fuel – Fuel Characteristic Classification System Fuelbeds](https://www.landfire.gov/fccs.php)) 2022 Rocky Mountain Research Station https://www.firelab.org/project/fofem-fire- effects-model