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* Metric Name: Annual Burn Probability  

* Tier: 1  

* Data Vintage: 08/2023. Includes disturbances through the end of 2022  

* Unit Of Measure: Probability, 0 to 1  

* Represent element and pillar: No  

* Type and distribution of data: Zero-inflated, right-skewed distribution representing probability. Raw values range from 0.0 to 0.101 for any given year.  

* Translation: Where is burn probability low?  

* Translation method and outcome: Raw data values translated to range from +1 to -1 representing more favorable to less favorable conditions, respectively. **** The proposition of more favorable is based on the objective of burn probability being low (negative linear slope). More favorable (translated to +1) set at 0.0 probability, less favorable (translated to -1) set at the highest observed value of 0.101 probability. 

Figure . Histogram and scoring of annual burn probability in Southern
California

Figure . Histogram of translated annual burn probability in Southern
California

Figure . Maps displaying raw metric and translated metric annual burn
probability in Southern California

  

* Metric Definition and Relevance: Annual Burn Probability represents the likelihood of a wildfire of any intensity occurring at a given location (pixel) in a single fire season. In a complete assessment of wildfire hazard, wildfire occurrence and spread are simulated in order to characterize how temporal variability in weather and spatial variability in fuel, topography, and ignition density influence wildfire likelihood across a landscape. In such cases, the hazard assessment includes modeling of burn probability, which quantifies the likelihood that a wildfire will burn a given point (a single grid cell or pixel) during a specified period of time. Burn probability for fire management planning applications in this case is reported on an annual basis - the probability of burning during a single fire season.  

* Credits: Pyrologix, LLC \--James Newman (California State BLM Office) jnewman@blm.gov