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* Metric Name: Probability of High Fire Severity *  

* Tier: 1  

* Data Vintage: 08/2023. Includes disturbances through the end of 2022.  

* Unit Of Measure: Probability, 0 to 1  

* Represent element and pillar: Yes  

* Type and distribution of data: Zero-inflated, right-skewed, beta-like distribution representing probabilities. Raw values range from 0 to 1 probability.  

* Translation: Where is the probability of high severity fire low?  

* Translation method and outcome: Raw data values translated to range from +1 to -1 representing more favorable to less favorable conditions, respectively. **** The proposition of more favorable is based on the objective of high severity fire probability being low (negative linear slope). More favorable (translated to +1) set at 0.0 probability, and less favorable (translated to -1) set at 1.0 probability. In some cases there may be a very low tolerance for the probability of high severity fire (e.g., score of -1 set lower than a probability of 1) and in some instances, there may be a desire for some high severity fire (score of -1 set at probabilities greater than _and_ less than certain values). These alternative interpretations can be derived from the translated values provided.

Figure . Histogram and scoring criterion of probability of high severity fire
across the Central Coast.

Figure . Histogram of translated probability of high severity fire across the
Central Coast.

Figure . Maps displaying raw metric and translated metric probability of high
severity fire across the Central Coast.

  

* Metric Definition and Relevance: These metrics depicts the probability of high severity fire as constructed by Pyrologix LLC. This operational-control probability raster indicates the probability that the headfire flame length in each pixel will exceed 8 foot flame lengths, the threshold that defines fires that would exceed manual control.  

* Credits: Pyrologix, LLC \--James Newman (California State BLM Office) jnewman@blm.gov